Figure 7
Observed incidence (solid black line) and cross-validated national incidence predictions (circles), with 95% confidence limits obtained by fitting a negative binomial model to the Niger national count data, using and December incidence as predictor (top panel), November-December zonal wind as predictor (middle panel), and December incidence and November-December zonal wind as predictors (bottom panel). Closed circles denote those predictions that were correctly assigned to be either above or below 100 cases per 100,000, whereas open circles are incorrect predictions. The bottom panel was extracted from Pérez García-Pando et al. (2014).