Figure 8

Maps of observed incidence for year 1995 at district level in Niger between January and May (right panel) and predicted probabilities of exceeding the seasonal epidemic threshold from a model including December incidence (national, district-level, and average of neighbors) and climate (national and district-level deviations from the national-level zonal wind and dust concentration) and population density (left panel). The modeling approach and detailed results are available in Pérez García-Pando et al. (2014).