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Table 1 Model evaluation summaries for weekly-scale statistical models (Agier et al. 2013b ; Stanton et al. 2013 ) with respect to how well they predict whether or not the incidence the following week will exceed the epidemic threshold (Criterion 1), and how well they forecast an epidemic prior to its onset during a 12 month period (Criterion 2)

From: Meningitis and climate: from science to practice

Model Evaluation criterion SENS SPEC PPV NPV
Dynamic 1 0.649 0.981 0.705 0.979
Markov chain 1 0.710 0.994 0.780 0.991
Dynamic 2 0.706 0.793 0.579 0.870
Markov chain 2 0.549 0.792 0.510 0.816