Simulated change in Sahel rainfall in (a) CMIP3 and (b) CMIP5 models against the change in (surface air) temperature difference between the subtropical North Atlantic and the global tropical oceans. All averages are taken July–September. Green dots identify the change between the end of the 20th century (CMIP3/20c3m, CMIP5/historical) and the ‘pre-Industrial’ control, blue dots the change between end and beginning of the 20th century, yellow dots the change between the middle of the 21st century (CMIP3/A1B scenario, CMIP5/RCP4.5) and the end of the 20th century, and red dots the change between end of the 21st and 20th centuries—we averaged 100 years of pre-Industrial control, and up to 3 ensemble members of the 20th and 21st century simulations when available. There are 17 models in the CMIP3 scatter, 15 in the CMIP5 scatter. This is Figure 1 in (Giannini et al. 2013).