TY - STD TI - The IRI’s climate map room [http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/index.html] UR - http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/index.html ID - ref1 ER - TY - STD TI - The IRI’s seasonal climate forecasts [http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/] UR - http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ ID - ref2 ER - TY - STD TI - The IRI’s forecasts of ENSO [http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/] UR - http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/ ID - ref3 ER - TY - STD TI - The IRI Data Library [http://iri.columbia.edu/resources/data-library/] UR - http://iri.columbia.edu/resources/data-library/ ID - ref4 ER - TY - STD TI - The CAMS-OPI gauge-plus-satellite rainfall data from the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA [http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NCEP/.CPC/.CAMS_OPI/.v0208/] UR - http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NCEP/.CPC/.CAMS_OPI/.v0208/ ID - ref5 ER - TY - STD TI - The IRI’s seasonal forecast verification site [http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/verification/] UR - http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/verification/ ID - ref6 ER - TY - STD TI - The IRI’s time scales map room [http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Time_Scales/index.html] UR - http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Time_Scales/index.html ID - ref7 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Barnston, A. G. AU - Mason, S. J. PY - 2011 DA - 2011// TI - Evaluation of IRI's seasonal climate forecasts for the extreme 15% tails JO - Wea Forecasting VL - 26 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05009.1 DO - 10.1175/WAF-D-10-05009.1 ID - Barnston2011 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Barnston, A. G. AU - Mason, S. J. AU - Goddard, L. AU - DeWitt, D. G. AU - Zebiak, S. E. PY - 2003 DA - 2003// TI - Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI JO - Bull Am Meteorol Soc VL - 84 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-12-1783 DO - 10.1175/BAMS-84-12-1783 ID - Barnston2003 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Barnston, A. G. AU - Kumar, A. AU - Goddard, L. AU - Hoerling, M. P. PY - 2005 DA - 2005// TI - Improving seasonal prediction practices through attribution of climate variability JO - Bull Am Meteorol Soc VL - 86 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-1-59 DO - 10.1175/BAMS-86-1-59 ID - Barnston2005 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Barnston, A. G. AU - Shuhua, L. AU - Mason, S. J. AU - DeWitt, D. G. AU - Goddard, L. AU - Gong, X. PY - 2010 DA - 2010// TI - Verification of the first 11 years of IRI’s seasonal climate forecasts JO - J Appl Meteorol Climatol VL - 49 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAMC2325.1 DO - 10.1175/2009JAMC2325.1 ID - Barnston2010 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Barnston, A. G. AU - Tippett, M. K. AU - L’Heureux, M. L. AU - Li, S. AU - DeWitt, D. G. AU - DeWitt, D. G. PY - 2012 DA - 2012// TI - Skill of real-time seasonal ENSO model predictions during 2002–11. Is our capability increasing? JO - Bull Am Meteorol Soc VL - 93 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1 DO - 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1 ID - Barnston2012 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Bengtsson, L. AU - Schlese, U. AU - Roeckner, E. AU - Latif, M. AU - Barnett, T. AU - Graham, N. PY - 1993 DA - 1993// TI - A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting JO - Science VL - 261 UR - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.261.5124.1026 DO - 10.1126/science.261.5124.1026 ID - Bengtsson1993 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Blementhal, M. B. AU - Bell, M. AU - del Corral, J. AU - Cousin, R. AU - Khomyakov, I. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - IRI Data Library: Enhancing accessibility of climate knowledge JO - Earth Perspect VL - 1 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-19 DO - 10.1186/2194-6434-1-19 ID - Blementhal2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Brown, C. AU - Carriquiry, M. PY - 2007 DA - 2007// TI - Managing hydroclimatological risk to water supply with option contracts and reservoir index insurance JO - Water Resour Res VL - 43 ID - Brown2007 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Ceccato, P. AU - Fernandez, K. AU - Ruis, D. AU - Allis, E. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - Climate and environmental monitoring for decision making JO - Earth Perspect VL - 1 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-16 DO - 10.1186/2194-6434-1-16 ID - Ceccato2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Coughlan De Perez, E. AU - Mason, S. J. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - Climate information for humanitarian agencies: Some basic principles JO - Earth Perspect VL - 1 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-11 DO - 10.1186/2194-6434-1-11 ID - Coughlan De Perez2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - DeWitt, D. G. PY - 2005 DA - 2005// TI - Retrospective forecasts of interannual sea surface temperature anomalies from 1982 to present using a directly coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model JO - Mon Weather Rev VL - 133 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3016.1 DO - 10.1175/MWR3016.1 ID - DeWitt2005 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Dinku, T. AU - Block, P. AU - Sharoff, J. AU - Hailemariam, K. AU - Osgood, D. AU - Del Corral, J. AU - Cousin, R. AU - Thomson, M. C. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - Bridging critical gaps in climate services and applications in Africa JO - Earth Perspect VL - 1 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-15 DO - 10.1186/2194-6434-1-15 ID - Dinku2014 ER - TY - CHAP AU - García-Pando, C. P. AU - Thomson, M. C. AU - Stanton, M. C. AU - Diggle, P. J. AU - Hopson, T. AU - Panya, R. AU - Miller, R. L. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// BT - Meningitis and climate--From science to practice ID - García-Pando2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Goddard, L. AU - Graham, N. E. PY - 1999 DA - 1999// TI - The importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating precipitation anomalies over the eastern and southern Africa JO - J Geophys Res VL - 104 UR - https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900326 DO - 10.1029/1999JD900326 ID - Goddard1999 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Goddard, L. AU - Mason, S. J. PY - 2002 DA - 2002// TI - Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies JO - Climate Dynam VL - 19 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-002-0251-y DO - 10.1007/s00382-002-0251-y ID - Goddard2002 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Goddard, L. AU - Barnston, A. G. AU - Mason, S. J. PY - 2003 DA - 2003// TI - Evaluation of the IRI’s “Net Assessment” seasonal Climate Forecasts: 1997–2001 JO - Bull Am Meteorol Soc VL - 84 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-12-1761 DO - 10.1175/BAMS-84-12-1761 ID - Goddard2003 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Goddard, L. AU - Kumar, A. AU - Barnston, A. G. AU - Hoerling, M. P. PY - 2006 DA - 2006// TI - Diagnosis of anomalous winter temperatures over the eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño JO - J Clim VL - 19 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3930.1 DO - 10.1175/JCLI3930.1 ID - Goddard2006 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Goddard, L. AU - Aichellouche, Y. AU - Baethgen, W. AU - Dettinger, M. AU - Graham, R. AU - Hayman, P. AU - Kadi, M. AU - Martinez, R. AU - Meinke, H. PY - 2010 DA - 2010// TI - Providing seasonal-to-interannual climate information for risk managmement and decision-making JO - Procedia Environ Sci VL - 1 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2010.09.007 DO - 10.1016/j.proenv.2010.09.007 ID - Goddard2010 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Goddard, L. AU - Hurrell, J. W. AU - Kirtman, B. P. AU - Murphy, J. AU - Stockdale, T. AU - Vera, C. PY - 2012 DA - 2012// TI - Two time scales for the price of one (almost) JO - Bull Am Meteorol Soc VL - 93 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00220.1 DO - 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00220.1 ID - Goddard2012 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Goddard, L. AU - Baethgen, W. AU - Bhojwani, H. AU - Robertson, A. W. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - The International Research Institute for Climate and Society: Why, what and how JO - Earth Perspect VL - 1 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-10 DO - 10.1186/2194-6434-1-10 ID - Goddard2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Greene, A. M. AU - Goddard, L. AU - Cousin, R. PY - 2011 DA - 2011// TI - Web tool deconstructed variability in twentieth century climate JO - EOS, Transactions Amer Geophys Union VL - 92 UR - https://doi.org/10.1029/2011EO450001 DO - 10.1029/2011EO450001 ID - Greene2011 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hagedorn, R. AU - Doblas-Reyes, F. J. AU - Palmer, T. N. PY - 2005 DA - 2005// TI - The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I Basic concept JO - Tellus Series A Dynamic Meteorology Oceanography VL - 57 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00103.x DO - 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00103.x ID - Hagedorn2005 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hansen, J. W. AU - Potgieter, A. AU - Tippett, M. K. PY - 2004 DA - 2004// TI - Using a general circulation model to forecast regional wheat yields in Northeast Australia JO - Agric Forest Meteor VL - 127 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.07.005 DO - 10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.07.005 ID - Hansen2004 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hansen, J. W. AU - Mishra, A. AU - Rao, K. P. C. AU - Indeje, M. AU - Ngugi, R. K. PY - 2009 DA - 2009// TI - Potential value of GCM-based seasonal rainfall forecasts for maize management in semi-arid Kenya JO - Agric Syst VL - 101 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2009.03.005 DO - 10.1016/j.agsy.2009.03.005 ID - Hansen2009 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hansen, J. W. AU - Zebiak, S. E. AU - Coffey, K. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - Shaping global agendas on climate risk management and climate services; an IRI perspective JO - Earth Perspect VL - 1 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-13 DO - 10.1186/2194-6434-1-13 ID - Hansen2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hewitt, C. AU - Mason, S. AU - Walland, D. PY - 2012 DA - 2012// TI - The global framework for climate services JO - Nat Clim Chg VL - 2 UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1745 DO - 10.1038/nclimate1745 ID - Hewitt2012 ER - TY - CHAP AU - Ishikawa, T. AU - Barnston, A. G. AU - Kastens, K. A. AU - Louchouarn, P. ED - Feid, A. D. ED - Stokes, A. PY - 2011 DA - 2011// TI - Understanding, evaluation and use of climate forecast data by environmental policy students BT - Special Paper 474, Qualitative Inquiry in Geosciences Education Research, Geolog. Soc. Amer UR - https://doi.org/10.1130/2011.2474(11) DO - 10.1130/2011.2474(11) ID - Ishikawa2011 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Kharin, V. V. AU - Zwiers, F. W. PY - 2002 DA - 2002// TI - Climate predictions with multimodel ensembles JO - J Clim VL - 15 UR - https://doi.org/2.0.CO;2 DO - 2.0.CO;2 ID - Kharin2002 ER - TY - CHAP AU - Kirtman, B. P. AU - Min, D. AU - Infanti, J. M. AU - Kinter, J. L. AU - Paolino, D. A. AU - Zhang, Q. AU - Van Den Dool, H. AU - Saha, S. AU - Mendez, M. P. AU - Becker, E. AU - Peng, P. AU - Tripp, P. AU - Huang, J. AU - DeWitt, D. G. AU - Tippett, M. K. AU - Barnston, A. G. AU - Li, S. AU - Rosati, A. AU - Schubert, S. D. AU - Lim, Y. -. K. AU - Li, Z. E. AU - Tribbia, J. AU - Pegion, K. AU - Merryfield, W. AU - Denis, B. AU - Wood, E. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction BT - Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc ID - Kirtman2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Korecha, D. AU - Barnston, A. G. PY - 2007 DA - 2007// TI - Predictability of June–September Rainfall in Ethiopia JO - Mon Weather Rev VL - 135 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3304.1 DO - 10.1175/MWR3304.1 ID - Korecha2007 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Landman, A. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - How the International Research Institute for Climate and Society has contributed towards seasonal climate forecast modeling and operations in South Africa JO - Earth Perspect VL - 1 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-22 DO - 10.1186/2194-6434-1-22 ID - Landman2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Landman, W. A. AU - Kgatuke, M. AU - Mbedzi, M. AU - Beraki, A. AU - Bartman, A. AU - du Piesanie, A. PY - 2009 DA - 2009// TI - Performance comparison of some dynamical and empirical downscaling methods for South Africa from a seasonal climate modeling perspective JO - Int J Climatol VL - 29 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1766 DO - 10.1002/joc.1766 ID - Landman2009 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Li, S. AU - Goddard, L. AU - DeWitt, D. G. PY - 2008 DA - 2008// TI - Predictive skill of AGCM seasonal climate forecasts subject to different SST prediction methodologies JO - J Clim VL - 21 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1660.1 DO - 10.1175/2007JCLI1660.1 ID - Li2008 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Lyon, B. AU - Camargo, S. J. PY - 2009 DA - 2009// TI - The seasonally-varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines JO - Clim Dynam VL - 32 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0380-z DO - 10.1007/s00382-008-0380-z ID - Lyon2009 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Lyon, B. AU - Giannini, A. AU - Gonzales, P. AU - Robertson, A. W. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - The role of targeted climate research at the IRI JO - Earth Perspect VL - 1 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-18 DO - 10.1186/2194-6434-1-18 ID - Lyon2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mantilla, G. AU - Thomson, C. AU - Sharoff, J. AU - Barnston, A. G. AU - Curtis, A. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - Capacity development through the sharing of climate information with diverse user communities JO - Earth Perspect VL - 1 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-21 DO - 10.1186/2194-6434-1-21 ID - Mantilla2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mason, I. PY - 1982 DA - 1982// TI - A model for assessment of weather forecasts JO - Aust Meteor Mag VL - 30 ID - Mason1982 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mason, S. J. PY - 2004 DA - 2004// TI - On using “climatology” as a reference strategy in the Brier and ranked probability skill scores JO - Mon Weather Rev VL - 137 UR - https://doi.org/2.0.CO;2 DO - 2.0.CO;2 ID - Mason2004 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mason, S. J. PY - 2008 DA - 2008// TI - Understanding forecast verification statistics JO - Meteor Applic VL - 15 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/met.51 DO - 10.1002/met.51 ID - Mason2008 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mason, S. J. AU - Graham, N. E. PY - 1999 DA - 1999// TI - Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics, and relative operating levels JO - Weather Forecast VL - 14 UR - https://doi.org/2.0.CO;2 DO - 2.0.CO;2 ID - Mason1999 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mason, S. J. AU - Weigel, A. P. PY - 2009 DA - 2009// TI - A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes JO - Mon Weather Rev VL - 137 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2553.1 DO - 10.1175/2008MWR2553.1 ID - Mason2009 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mason, S. J. AU - Goddard, L. AU - Graham, N. E. AU - Yulaeva, E. AU - Sun, L. AU - Arkin, P. A. PY - 1999 DA - 1999// TI - The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niño event JO - Bull Am Meteorol Soc VL - 80 UR - https://doi.org/2.0.CO;2 DO - 2.0.CO;2 ID - Mason1999 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Meehl, G. A. AU - Goddard, L. AU - Murphy, J. AU - Stouffer, R. J. AU - Boer, G. AU - Danabasoglu, G. AU - Dixon, K. AU - Giorgetta, M. A. AU - Greene, A. M. AU - Hawkins, E. AU - Hegerl, G. AU - Karoly, D. AU - Keenlyside, N. AU - Kimoto, M. AU - Kirtman, B. AU - Navarra, A. AU - Pulwarty, R. AU - Smith, D. AU - Stammer, D. AU - Stockdale, T. PY - 2009 DA - 2009// TI - Decadal prediction – Can it be skillful? JO - Bull Am Meteorol Soc VL - 90 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1 DO - 10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1 ID - Meehl2009 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Murphy, A. H. PY - 1973 DA - 1973// TI - A new vector partition of the probability score JO - J Appl Meteorol VL - 12 UR - https://doi.org/2.0.CO;2 DO - 2.0.CO;2 ID - Murphy1973 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Palmer, T. N. AU - Alessandri, A. AU - Andersen, U. AU - Cantelaube, P. AU - Davey, M. AU - Delecluse, P. AU - Deque, M. AU - Diez, E. AU - Doblas-Reyes, F. J. AU - Feddersen, H. AU - Graham, R. AU - Gualdi, S. AU - Gueremy, J. F. AU - Hagedorn, R. AU - Hoshen, M. AU - Keenlyside, N. AU - Latif, M. AU - Lazar, A. AU - Maisonnave, E. AU - Marletto, V. AU - Morse, A. P. AU - Orfila, B. AU - Rogel, P. AU - Terres, J. M. AU - Thomson, M. C. PY - 2004 DA - 2004// TI - Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER) JO - Bull Am Meteorol Soc VL - 2004 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853 DO - 10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853 ID - Palmer2004 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Rajagopalan, B. AU - Lall, U. AU - Zebiak, S. E. PY - 2002 DA - 2002// TI - Categorical climate forecasts through regularization and optimal combination of multiple GCM ensembles JO - Mon Weather Rev VL - 130 UR - https://doi.org/2.0.CO;2 DO - 2.0.CO;2 ID - Rajagopalan2002 ER - TY - CHAP AU - Recalde-Coronel, G. C. AU - Barnston, A. G. AU - Munoz, A. G. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - Predictability of December-April rainfall in coastal and Andean Ecuador BT - J Appl Meteorol Climatol ID - Recalde-Coronel2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Robertson, A. W. AU - Lall, U. AU - Zebiak, S. E. AU - Goddard, L. PY - 2004 DA - 2004// TI - Improved combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensemble for seasonal prediction JO - Mon Weather Rev VL - 132 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR2818.1 DO - 10.1175/MWR2818.1 ID - Robertson2004 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Robertson, A. AU - Moron, W. V. AU - Swarinoto, Y. PY - 2009 DA - 2009// TI - Seasonal predictability of daily rainfall statistics over Indramayu district Indonesia JO - Int J Climatol VL - 29 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1816 DO - 10.1002/joc.1816 ID - Robertson2009 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Robertson, A. W. AU - Baethgen, W. AU - Block, P. AU - Lall, U. AU - Sankarasubramanian, A. AU - Filho, F. A. S. AU - Verbist, K. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - Climate risk managment in water for semi-arid regions JO - Earth Perspect VL - 1 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-12 DO - 10.1186/2194-6434-1-12 ID - Robertson2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Ropelewski, C. F. AU - Janowiak, J. E. AU - Halpert, M. S. PY - 1985 DA - 1985// TI - The analysis and display of real time surface climate data JO - Mon Weather Rev VL - 113 UR - https://doi.org/2.0.CO;2 DO - 2.0.CO;2 ID - Ropelewski1985 ER - TY - BOOK AU - Solomon, S. AU - Qin, D. AU - Manning, M. AU - Chen, Z. AU - Marquis, M. AU - Averyt, K. B. AU - Tignor, M. AU - Miller, H. L. PY - 2007 DA - 2007// TI - Climate Change: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change PB - Cambridge University Press CY - Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA ID - Solomon2007 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Sun, L. AU - Moncunill, D. F. AU - Li, H. AU - Moura, A. D. AU - Filho, F. A. S. PY - 2005 DA - 2005// TI - Climate downscaling over Nordeste, Brazil, using the NCEP RSM97 JO - J Clim VL - 18 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3266.1 DO - 10.1175/JCLI-3266.1 ID - Sun2005 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Thomson, M. C. AU - Doblas-Reyes, S. J. AU - Mason, S. J. AU - Hagedorn, R. AU - Connor, S. J. AU - Phindela, T. AU - Morse, A. P. AU - Palmer, T. N. PY - 2006 DA - 2006// TI - Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles JO - Nature VL - 439 UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04503 DO - 10.1038/nature04503 ID - Thomson2006 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Tippett, M. K. AU - Barnston, A. G. PY - 2008 DA - 2008// TI - Skill of multimodel ENSO probability forecasts JO - Mon Weather Rev VL - 136 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2431.1 DO - 10.1175/2008MWR2431.1 ID - Tippett2008 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Tippett, M. K. AU - Barnston, A. G. AU - Li, S. PY - 2012 DA - 2012// TI - Performance of recent multimodel ENSO forecasts JO - J Appl Meteorol Climatol VL - 51 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-093.1 DO - 10.1175/JAMC-D-11-093.1 ID - Tippett2012 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Van den Dool, H. M. AU - Toth, Z. PY - 1991 DA - 1991// TI - Why do forecasts for “near normal” often fail? JO - Wea Forecasting VL - 6 UR - https://doi.org/2.0.CO;2 DO - 2.0.CO;2 ID - Van den Dool1991 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Weigel, A. P. AU - Mason, S. J. PY - 2011 DA - 2011// TI - The generalized discrimination score for ensemble forecasts JO - Mon Weather Rev VL - 139 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05069.1 DO - 10.1175/MWR-D-10-05069.1 ID - Weigel2011 ER - TY - BOOK AU - Wilks, D. S. PY - 2006 DA - 2006// TI - Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences PB - Academic Press CY - San Diego, California ID - Wilks2006 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Xie, P. AU - Arkin, P. A. PY - 1997 DA - 1997// TI - Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs JO - Bull Am Meteorol Soc VL - 78 UR - https://doi.org/2.0.CO;2 DO - 2.0.CO;2 ID - Xie1997 ER -