Figure 4From: Climate information, outlooks, and understanding–where does the IRI stand?Verification of IRI’s forecasts for January-March temperature from 1998 to 2013. Here the likelihood verification measure is shown, which is the geometric average of the probabilities issued for the later-determined correct category. Scores greater than 0.333 indicate positive skill, and scores of 0.4 or more suggest useful levels of skill for many applications.Back to article page