Example of a flexible format forecast for temperature. Here the forecast was for the February-April season, issued in mid-January 2013. In top panel, the contours indicate the climatological (expected) temperature for the season, and the color shading shows the probability of exceeding that temperature. The bottom panels show the forecast probability distribution (green) along with the climatological distribution (black) for the grid square located at 5°S, 57°W in northern Brazil where a strong shift of the odds toward above-normal temperature was forecast. The lower left panel shows the cumulative forecast probability distribution, and the lower right panel shows the probability density function itself.