Verification results of DJF rainfall predictions statistically downscaled to 93 districts across South Africa. a) Cross-validation Kendall’s tau correlations as calculated over 26 years by using a 5-year-out approach; relative operating characteristic scores as calculated over 15 years of retro-active forecasting. b) Reliability diagrams and frequency histograms obtained from the same 15 years of retro-active forecasts. The straight lines are respectively the weighted least-squares regression lines of the above-normal and below-normal reliability curves. StatSST: statistical model using near-global SST as predictors; CA-SST: downscaled ECHAM4.5 AGCM forecasts, forced with statistically predicted SST; MOM-DC2: downscaled ECHAM4.5-MOM3-DC2 coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts.