Figure 6From: How the International Research Institute for Climate and Society has contributed towards seasonal climate forecast modelling and operations in South AfricaVerification results of DJF rainfall predictions statistically downscaled to 93 districts across South Africa. a) Cross-validation Kendall’s tau correlations as calculated over 26 years by using a 5-year-out approach; relative operating characteristic scores as calculated over 15 years of retro-active forecasting. b) Reliability diagrams and frequency histograms obtained from the same 15 years of retro-active forecasts. The straight lines are respectively the weighted least-squares regression lines of the above-normal and below-normal reliability curves. StatSST: statistical model using near-global SST as predictors; CA-SST: downscaled ECHAM4.5 AGCM forecasts, forced with statistically predicted SST; MOM-DC2: downscaled ECHAM4.5-MOM3-DC2 coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts.Back to article page