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Table 4 Summary of projected hydro-meteorological changes for each scenario and future period

From: Exploring the ability of current climate information to facilitate local climate services for the water sector

  Scenario [Type;No of models; No of realizations] Results Projected changes
  Variable Median Min Max
2000–2050 RCP2.6 [GCMs;7;14] Average annual precipitation is expected to be slightly decreased (−1.2 %) with a parallel increase of temperature by 1.5 °C on average that could lead to a decrease of about 6.4 % in availability. ΔΤ (°C) 1.4 1.1 2.2
ΔΡ (%) −2 % −6 % 5 %
ΔAv (%) −8 % −16 % 9 %
RCP4.5 [GCMs;7;16] Precipitation is projected to slightly decrease (−3.2 %) and combined with the slightly higher (compared to RCP2.6) temperature increase 1.6 °C, could result to an average decrease in availability by 2.8 %. ΔΤ (°C) 1.5 1.1 2.1
ΔΡ (%) −4 % −8 % 3 %
ΔAv (%) −1 % −20 % 13 %
RCP8.5 [GCMs;7;15] Projections show an average decrease of 4.6 % in average annual rainfall and an average temperature increase of 1.9 °C, leading to a water availability decrease by 14.1 %. ΔΤ (°C) 1.9 1.4 2.6
ΔΡ (%) −5 % −9 % 0 %
ΔAv (%) −13 % −28 % −7 %
B1 [GCMs;3;1] Projected average annual precipitation is expected to be slightly higher (by 0.5 %) than the control period (1970–2000). Average annual temperature (16.3 °C of 1970–2000 period) could increase by an average of 1.5 °C. We could expect an average increase of water availability by 5 %. ΔΤ (°C) 1.4 1.1 1.9
ΔΡ (%) 1 % −1 % 2 %
ΔAv (%) 6 % 1 % 7 %
A2 [GCMs;3;1] Annual precipitation could slightly decrease (by 2.2 %). Average annual temperature could increase by an average of 1.4 °C and average water availability could be slightly reduced (−2 %). ΔΤ (°C) 1.5 1.1 1.8
ΔΡ (%) −3 % −4 % 0 %
ΔAv (%) −2 % −4 % 1 %
A1B [RCMs;10;1] According to the Ensembles results from 10 RCMs, future projections show an average decrease of 12.2 % in average annual rainfall and an average temperature increase of 1.8 °C, leading to a water availability decrease by 11 %. ΔΤ (°C) 1.2 0.9 2.0
ΔΡ (%) −7 % −17 % 0 %
ΔAv (%) −10 % −28 % 14 %
2051-2100 RCP2.6 [GCMs;7;14] Average annual precipitation is expected to be slightly decreased (−2.4 %) with a parallel increase of temperature by 2.0 °C on average that could lead to a decrease of about 19.8 % in availability. ΔΤ (°C) 1.8 1.4 3.2
ΔΡ (%) −2 % −9 % 2 %
ΔAv (%) −16 % −53 % 4 %
RCP4.5 [GCMs;7;16] Annual precipitation could decrease by 9.3 %, annual temperature could increase by an average of 3.0 °C and average water availability could decrease by 18 % compared to past climate. ΔΤ (°C) 2.9 2.4 4.1
ΔΡ (%) −9 % −16 % −1 %
ΔAv (%) −17 % −37 % 0 %
RCP8.5 [GCMs;7;15] Projections show an average decrease of average annual rainfall by 19.4 % and an average temperature increase of 5.1 °C, leading to a water availability decrease of −29.6 %. ΔΤ (°C) 4.9 3.7 6.4
ΔΡ (%) −21 % −34 % −5 %
ΔAv (%) −27 % −62 % −14 %
B1 [GCMs;3;1] Projected average annual precipitation is expected to decrease slightly (4 %, 989 mm). Average annual temperature could increase by an average of 3.1 °C. During this period we could expect on average 10 % less available water resources. ΔΤ (°C) 3.1 2.6 3.7
ΔΡ (%) −1 % −12 % −1 %
ΔAv (%) −6 % −24 % −5 %
A2 [GCMs;3;1] Projected average annual precipitation is expected to decrease by 21 % less in comparison to the period 1970–2000. Average annual temperature could increase by an average of 4.5 °C. Average water availability could decrease by 40 %. ΔΤ (°C) 4.4 3.9 5.3
ΔΡ (%) −19 % −28 % −18 %
ΔAv (%) −37 % −47 % −36 %
A1B [RCMs;10;1] Projections show an average decrease of average annual rainfall by 25.2 %, and an average temperature increase of 4.6 °C, leading to a water availability decrease of 48 %. ΔΤ (°C) 3.3 2.4 5.4
ΔΡ (%) −25 % −42 % −14 %
ΔAv (%) −38 % −64 % −17 %