Table 1 Summary of 29 CMIP5 GCMs that form the ensemble of climate projections used in this study

ACCESS1-0

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Australia

1.25° × 1.875°

3.8

BCC-CSM1-1

Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration

~2.8° × 2.8°

2.8

BNU-ESM

College of Global Change and Earth Systems Science, Beijing Normal University (BNU)

~2.8° × 2.8°

4.1

CanESM2

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis

~2.8° × 2.8°

3.7

CCSM4

US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

~0.9° × 1.25°

2.9

CESM1-BGC

US National Science Foundation (NSF), US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

~0.9° × 1.25°

n.a.

CMCC-CM

Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change

~0.75° × 0.75°

n.a.

CMCC-CMS

Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change

~1.9° × 1.875°

n.a.

CNRM-CM5

France National Centre for Meteorological Research

~1.4° × 1.4°

3.3

CSIRO-Mk3-6-0

Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)

~1.9° × 1.875°

4.1

FGOALS-g2

Chinese Academy of Sciences

~2.8° × 2.8°

n.a.

GFDL-CM3

NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL)

2.0° × 2.5°

4.0

GFDL-ESM2G

NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL)

~2.0° × 2.5°

2.4

GFDL-ESM2M

NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL)

~2.0° × 2.5°

2.4

GISS-E2-H

National Aeronautics and Space Association Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA GISS)

2° × 2.5°

2.3

GISS-E2-R

National Aeronautics and Space Association Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA GISS)

2° × 2.5°

2.1

HadGEM2-AO

UK Meteorological Office - Hadley Centre

1.25° × 1.875°

n.a.

HadGEM2-CC

UK Meteorological Office - Hadley Centre

1.25° × 1.875°

n.a.

HadGEM2-ES

UK Meteorological Office - Hadley Centre

1.25° × 1.875°

4.6

INMCM4.0

Russian Institute for Numerical Mathematics (INM)

1.5° × 2°

2.1

IPSL-CM5A-LR

Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL)

~1.9° × 3.75°

4.1

IPSL-CM5A-MR

Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL)

~1.3° × 2.5°

n.a.

IPSL-CM5B-LR

Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL)

~1.9° × 3.75°

2.6

MIROC5

University of Tokyo, Japanese National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

~1.4° × ~1.4°

2.7

MIROC-ESM

University of Tokyo, Japanese National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

~2.8° × ~2.8°

4.7

MPI-ESM-LR

Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology (low resolution)

~1.9° × 1.875°

3.6

MPI-ESM-MR

Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology (mixed resolution)

~1.9° × 1.875°

n.a.

MRI-CGCM3

Japanese Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)

~1.1° × 1.125°

2.6

NorESM1-M

Norwegian Climate Centre

~1.9° × 2.5°

2.8